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Environment & Climate

Met Office projects developing El Niño could be strongest in modern records

Forecasters warn intense ocean warming in the Pacific could alter global weather patterns and make 2027 the hottest year on record.

Updated Aug 24, 2026 · 00:34 UTC2 reports

The short version

  • The UK Met Office warns a developing Pacific El Niño is poised to become the strongest in modern records going back to 1950.
  • The phenomenon is already disrupting global weather, suppressing Indian monsoon rains and Atlantic hurricane activity while raising international concerns over food security.
  • In the UK, forecasters expect an increased risk of stormy and wet conditions throughout autumn and early winter, with global temperatures likely to peak in 2027.

Key facts

  • The UK Met Office reported that current Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2C above average and may exceed 3C above normal later this year.[BBC News]
  • Subsurface ocean temperatures at depths of roughly 100 meters are measuring up to 8C above normal in parts of the Pacific, creating a large heat reservoir.[BBC News]
  • Met Office scientists project that the combination of this El Niño and human-driven global warming makes 2027 very likely to become the warmest year on record globally.[BBC News]
  • The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that weather disruptions from this event could expose tens of millions of people to crisis-level acute food insecurity.[BBC News]
  • Forecasters indicate the event increases the probability of heavy rain, storms, and potential flooding across north-west Europe and the UK in November and December.[BBC News · BBC News]

What remains uncertain

  • Long-range seasonal outcomes remain uncertain, as historical connections between El Niño and late-winter cold spells or subsequent summer heat in the UK are mixed.[BBC News · BBC News]
  • The exact peak intensity of the event remains projected, with some external research groups forecasting sea surface temperature anomalies reaching up to 4C above average.[BBC News]
  • According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is no established evidence that global climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño occurrences.[BBC News]

Sources