Business & Finance
Middle East crude exports surpass pre-war volumes despite conflict, data indicates
Provisional shipping estimates show regional oil flows rebounding through detours and transfers even as maritime attacks persist.
The short version
- Preliminary data from Kpler indicates Middle East crude exports topped pre-war averages on four days in late September 2026, reaching up to 22.5 million barrels per day.[Deutsche Welle · Al Jazeera]
- Exporters adapted to Strait of Hormuz disruptions by utilizing pipeline detours, Red Sea shipments, and offshore ship-to-ship transfers.[Deutsche Welle]
- Iranian commanders disputed shipping flow figures, while recurring maritime strikes continue across regional waterways.[Al Jazeera]
Key facts
- Provisional figures from Kpler show Middle East crude exports reached 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day across four days in late September 2026, exceeding the pre-war 18 million bpd baseline.[Deutsche Welle · Al Jazeera]
- Roughly 40% of Gulf crude bypassed the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026, up from 17% prior to the conflict.[Deutsche Welle]
- Over 70% of crude was transferred between tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman during August 2026.[Deutsche Welle]
- Saudi Arabia expanded Red Sea exports and the UAE utilized its Fujairah pipeline to circumvent Hormuz, while Iranian crude exports remained below pre-war levels.[Deutsche Welle]
- The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations logged at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden starting October 2, 2026.[Al Jazeera]
What remains uncertain
- IRGC commander Ali Fadavi disputed trade analytics, asserting that only 3 to 4 million barrels daily move through the route.[Al Jazeera]
- Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Washington accepts Tehran's reopening proposal.[Al Jazeera]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.