Environment & Climate
Forecasters expect wetter, warmer US winter with more southern snow
The Guardian reports that federal and other meteorologists expect a generally wetter, warmer winter, with below-normal snow in the north.
The short version
- The Guardian reports that the federal seasonal outlook and other meteorologists expect a generally wetter and warmer US winter, which NOAA links to El Niño.[The Guardian]
- Below-normal snowfall is expected across much of the north, while parts of the southern Rockies, southeast and southwest may get more snow than usual.[The Guardian]
- AccuWeather forecasts about half or less of normal snowfall for Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia.[The Guardian]
- An MIT scientist says the record-strength El Niño has no close historical precedent, which lowers confidence in the forecasts.[The Guardian]
Key facts
- The federal seasonal outlook and other meteorologists expect a generally wetter and warmer US winter, though not necessarily snowier.[The Guardian]
- NOAA said El Niño is likely to bring more moisture and higher temperatures, but unlikely to bring much northern snow.[The Guardian]
- Some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal, and no states are forecast to be cooler than average.[The Guardian]
- NOAA's meteorologists expect below-normal snowfall across the north-east, Great Lakes, upper Midwest and northern Rockies.[The Guardian]
- NOAA forecasts a wetter-than-usual winter for parts of 39 states, with much of Montana and parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin and Michigan drier.[The Guardian]
- AccuWeather forecasts about half or less of normal winter snow for Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia, and expects above-normal snow only in Salt Lake City among major metro areas.[The Guardian]
- US winter has warmed about 4F over the past 50 years, predominantly from human-caused climate change, according to NOAA.[The Guardian]
- Forecasters across the globe expect the current El Niño to reach record levels this fall or winter.[The Guardian]
What remains uncertain
- Forecast confidence is lower because the unprecedented El Niño has no real historical analogue, according to MIT research scientist Judah Cohen, who is delaying his own forecast.[The Guardian]
- The weather service does not make seasonal snowfall predictions, so its snow outlook is based on meteorologists' statements rather than numerical totals.[The Guardian]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.